Which numbers do you believe these days?
Marketers, pollsters, meteorologists, economic forecasters and many other professionals face a rising tide of skepticism when they try to inform and persuade via statistics. Some of the damage has been self-inflicted, when people who are in the description business have ventured into the prediction business. The most recent election was a vivid example.
Still, skepticism about statistics and claims has been growing for some time — across industries and national borders. As just one example, the 2011 Nielsen Global Survey found that people around the world are skeptical about the health claims found on food packaging (e.g. “low fat” or “all natural”). More than two-thirds of respondents believed nutritional claims are either never trustworthy or only sometimes trustworthy.
Business people need to understand data and use it to communicate effectively with consumers, regulators and the media. How can you make your case, clearly and honestly, in such a skeptical age? Here are three important considerations when using statistics to educate and persuade:
Use the right communication tools. Mathematical literacy and attention are typically in short supply, so brevity is a good starting point. I have seen people stuff 10 statistics into a single PowerPoint slide or a few dozen into an article or white paper. The audience is quickly overwhelmed. It’s a better idea to focus on one or two statistics at a time.
Some ideas are easier to convey through statistics than are others. In that Nielsen survey, the most trusted health claims on food packaging were calorie counts, vitamin content, and fat content—things that appear to consumers as scientific, objective and easily measured.
On the other hand, consumers generally don’t believe more ambiguous claims such as “fresh” and “heart-healthy.” (Only 15 percent of respondents thought those types of claims are always accurate.)
Graphs, bar charts, and infographics convey authority and credibility. Consider using them, especially if you have a more complex, ambiguous idea to support.
Match your data to common understanding and personal experiences. Many organizations try to use statistics to educate some segment of the public. But what if the public doesn’t understand? The Nielsen survey found that only 41 percent of consumers around the world even “mostly understand” nutritional labels. That figure, already low, was down from 44 percent back in 2008.
Part of the solution is to take data from a rather dry context (product labels) and connect it to more everyday experiences. For example, health experts typically recommend that adults drink 64 ounces of water per day. On its own, that number is difficult to remember and apply. But when you instead recommend eight 8-ounce glasses or four half-liter bottles of water per day the guidelines are easier to visualize.
Mona Chalabi, a data journalist, recently gave a TED Talk on statistics that included a great example.
She demonstrated the average distribution of flu season by month through a hand-drawn chart. Rather than lines or bars, her chart featured six noses representing the months of October-March. The length of, um, stuff coming out of each nose represented the number of times that month was the peak of flu season in each year since 1982. The visual might cause a lot of cringing, but it is easily relatable for everyone.
Be clear about sources and limitations. In the past I have written about the uncertainties associated with polls and interpreting them. There are many, including sampling (who was selected), response rates (how many actually participated) and the order and wording of questions. Each can introduce errors and biases. If you are transparent with the audience about the source of your statistics, then that act alone will blunt some skepticism.
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Jim Karrh of Little Rock is a consultant, coach and professional speaker as well as a consulting principal with DSG. Visit JimKarrh.com, email him at Jim@JimKarrh.com and follow him on Twitter @JimKarrh. |