The Federal Reserve is raising a key interest rate for the first time in a year, reflecting a resilient U.S. economy and expectations of higher inflation. The move will mean modestly higher rates on some loans.
The Fed signaled in a statement Wednesday that additional rate increases will likely be made slowly as the economy improves and inflation edges closer to the Fed's 2 percent target.
The central bank is increasing its benchmark rate by a quarter-point to a still-low range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent. The Fed last raised the rate in December 2015 from a record low near zero set during the 2008 financial crisis.
More: Read the Fed's complete statement here or at the end of this article.
President-elect Donald Trump's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending have led investors to expect that inflation will pick up in coming months.
The economy, after growing at an anemic annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first half of this year, accelerated to a 3.2 percent pace in the July-September quarter. That pickup has lifted hopes that the economy will keep rising, fueled by steady hiring gains. The unemployment rate is at a nine-year low of 4.6 percent.
In the month since Trump's victory, investors have sent stock prices surging to record highs and driven up bond yields. The markets have calculated that Republican control of Congress will enable Trump to cut taxes, ease regulations and accelerate infrastructure spending — and that higher economic growth, inflation and corporate profits will result.
The Fed's action Wednesday should have little effect on mortgages or auto and student loans. The Fed doesn't directly affect those rates, at least not in the short run. But rates on some other loans — notably credit cards, home equity loans and adjustable-rate mortgages — will likely rise soon, though only modestly. Those rates are based on benchmarks like banks' prime rate, which moves in tandem with the Fed's key rate.
Mortgage rates have been surging since Trump's election victory last month on expectations that his economic program will accelerate economic growth and inflation.
Some Fed watchers expect faster growth to lead the central bank to shift its focus from trying to energize the economy to considering ways to counter the risk of too-high inflation. On that assumption, some are revising their forecasts for Fed rate hikes in 2017.
Before Trump's victory, the consensus view of economists was for two Fed rate increases next year. Now, some say they foresee three or possibly as many as four. Others think the Fed will be hesitant to step up the pace of rate hikes. For one thing, Trump's economic program still must win congressional approval and could undergo significant change along the way.
Last month after Trump's election, Yellen told a congressional committee that Fed officials would be monitoring Congress' actions and "updating our economic outlook as the policy landscape becomes clearer."
Other Fed officials have endorsed that wait-and-see approach.
The Fed's Complete Statement:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up considerably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
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